BY CORY SPIERS
It's still a bit early to start thinking about draft order, but the closer we get to the end of the regular season, the more it looks as if the Panthers will be picking in the top-10 in April's draft.
It's quite a change from the thinking a month ago. Once upon a time, Carolina was 6-2 and had serious playoff aspirations.
A five-game losing streak has all but derailed the Panthers playoff hopes, who cling to postseason life solely by virtue of a crowd of NFC Wild Card contenders who can't seem to quit stepping on their own feet on the dance floor.
Even still, Carolina's final trio of games is a brutal gauntlet.
The now 6-7 Panthers host New Orleans in a primetime game in Week 15. With the Saints eager to hold off Los Angeles for the NFC's top seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, they'll have plenty to play for against their rivals.
Carolina stays home and welcomes Matt Ryan and the Falcons to Charlotte two days before Christmas. A frustrated Falcons team may be the perfect candidate to put coal in the Panthers stocking.
Those two matchups lead to a regular season finale at New Orleans-- which has historically been a house of horrors for the Panthers. Including the playoffs, the Panthers have dropped three straight games in New Orleans and haven't won there since a 41-38 victory in 2015.
If there is a win in there for Carolina, it could come against Atlanta, who the Panthers tend to keep close, especially at home. The Falcons have struggled, but in division games, the records can typically be thrown out of the window.
Another possibility could be if New Orleans enters Week 17 with their fate completely clear. A pair of wins before that game and some Los Angeles struggles could mean the Saints have locked up the No. 1 seed before they even play the Panthers in the finale.
In such a scenario, Sean Payton could opt to limit his starters, including his aging quarterback Drew Brees, or hold them out completely. Even then, I'm not certain Carolina would win.
The Saints have Teddy Bridgewater as a backup and it wouldn't shock me if even he could find success against Carolina's inept pass rush and clueless secondary on the fast turf in New Orleans.
If the draft were today, the Panthers would pick 15th in the first round, beating out 6-7 Philadelphia and Denver by virtue of strength of schedule.
That's obviously subject to change. The Panthers sit just a game back of a slew of 5-8 teams and two games behind a few 4-9's. Should a couple of those teams get slightly hot and the Panthers continue to nosedive, a top-10 selection is far from out of the question.
For reference, the Panthers finished 6-10 in 2016 and that record was good enough for the 8th overall selection, which turned into Stanford's Christan McCaffrey.
Now, with all that hard stuff out of the way, here's the situation.
I ran a mock draft using a site called "Fanspeak". It's a lot of fun for football geeks like you and me.
Basically, it loads up the current draft order and allows you to input various big boards from "experts" all across the Internet to fill the prospect pool. Based on your selected big board and a pre-programmed list of individual team needs, an AI makes the picks for the other 31 teams and you play GM and pick your guys for each round based on who is on the board.
It's a blast. I do it dozens of times before the draft.
It's been a while since I did it this early, but it's the most fun a fan can have given Carolina's... eh.. circumstances.
So, I'll play GM and show you who I was able to get in this fantasy mock draft and explain the thought behind the pick and where they'd fit in. Please also note that this particular draft order isn't 100 percent up to date, so it has the Panthers selecting 16th overall. Just a heads up.
Also, ignore the Riley Ridley pick. That would be awesome, but I'm not sure how that second third round selection came into play. I can't find anywhere that shows the Panthers added any picks. Perhaps a glitch in the site's programming or something.
The Panthers did subtract their 7th rounder by shipping it to Buffalo in the Kevon Seymour/Kaelin Clay trade.
So just ignore that Ridley selection.
Now, let's go.
ROUND 1:
I haven't seen many mocks where Greedy Williams makes it this far in the first round, but in this particular fantasy, the Panthers are happy to grab him at 16 and don't waste much of their on-clock time to do it.
In this mock, two quarterbacks went in the top 10 (Justin Herbert to the Giants and Dwayne Haskins to Jacksonville) and a run on defensive linemen helped make Williams wait longer to hear his name called than many expected.
Nine defensive linemen went in front of Williams in this scenario and DeAndre Baker of Georgia actually was the first corner off the board, going fourth to the Cardinals.
Williams would immediately bolster Carolina's corner depth and improve a group that has struggled to stop chunk plays.
Williams is long with 6'3 size and has the ball skills and instincts that can't be taught.
Williams led the SEC in interceptions in 2017 with six, becoming the first LSU Tiger to accomplish the feat since Craig Steltz in 2007.
Williams has just two interceptions this season, but a lot of that might have to do with the fact that quarterbacks simply won't throw his direction.
Williams would challenge James Bradberry for a starting spot in camp and would join fellow LSU alum Donte Jackson in the defensive backs room.
A little camaraderie never hurt anyone, right?
ROUND 2:
Julius Peppers can't play forever and Mario Addison's sacks seem to only come in bunches.
Efe Obada is a nice story, having made the team as an international player once left orphaned in London and Wes Horton has had solid moments in Carolina.
But it's painfully clear that Carolina's pass rush needs a shot in the arm.
Montez Sweat is a mountain of a man at 6-6, 250, and has the pass-rushing skills to match the look.
Sweat tied for the SEC lead in sacks (10.5) and tackles for a loss (15.5) as a sophomore and followed it with a junior campaign that saw him rack up 11.5 sacks and 14 tackles for a loss.
Once again, the Panthers are surprised to find this kind of value in the second round. Most mocks I've seen project Sweat as a mid to late first rounder, but four teams addressed the offensive line from 21-32 and two (Washington and New England) thought about their futures at quarterback by drafting Will Grier and Drew Lock.
Frighteningly, Sweat could still refine his game even more for the NFL level, and Carolina would be a fine place to do it, beside veteran Mario Addison.
I can't imagine Peppers will play another year, especially as it's more evident now than ever that he's lost a step or two so Sweat would have real potential to be an opening day starter, barring any major free agent moves at the position.
ROUND 3:
Carolina needs help up front on the offensive side, too.
The Panthers offensive line depth was tested early in 2018 when salary cap black hole Matt Kalil was sidelined indefinitely with a knee concern and tackle Daryl Williams and guard Amini Silatolu dealt with lower body injuries of their own.
It forced the Panthers to rifle through the NFL garbage heap to find help. They did so in the form of former Texan Chris Clark. He's not the answer long-term.
Greg Van Roten, a 28-year-old Penn State product, was also thrust into a key role on the line. Haven't heard of him? Join the club.
Connor McGovern is a three-year starter on the offensive line for Penn State and is one of Mel Kiper Jr.'s top guards available.
McGovern made nine starts at right guard in 2018 but started 13 games at center as a sophomore in 2017. That versatility could loom large for the Panthers, who will lose longtime starting center Ryan Kalil to retirement after the season.
If McGovern proved he could play center again and do it competently, he could win the starting center role over... likely offensive line swiss army knife Tyler Larsen who could always shift to guard if needed.
ROUND 4:
If this is truly the end for Thomas Davis, it's been a great run.
The longtime linebacker and "Keep Pounding" slogan personified missed the first four games of the season after testing positive for an estrogen blocker, but still may opt to call it quits after a disappointing 2018.
If that's the case, the Panthers could use more linebacker talent to complement Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson.
Enter Shaquille Quarterman. The 2018 All-ACC first team selection has been a stalwart for Miami's defense.
Scouts like the 6-1, 240-pound Quarterman's pass rush ability and speed. He has 11 career sacks to go along with 243 total tackles in three seasons as a Hurricane.
Quarterman has also flashed at times as a pass defender. He intercepted a pass earlier this season and recorded a career-high five passes defended as a sophomore.
If Davis retires and the Panthers lose special teams ace and backup extraordinaire David Mayo to unrestricted free agency as they did with former standout AJ Klein, linebacker could be an interesting group to watch in April and during the summer.
Quarterman could compete for a starting role, depending on how last year's linebacker draft prospects Andre Smith and Jermaine Carter end up panning out.
ROUND 5:
It's not out of the realm of possibility that we've seen Greg Olsen play for the final time.
He's signed through the next two seasons, but with another major foot injury ending his season and NFL broadcasting experience already under his belt, one has to wonder how long Olsen will "play through pain".
If Olsen's surgery goes well and he still has some zip, sure, he could continue to give it a go. But he's about to turn 34, and lower body injuries don't heal the same way they do when you're 24.
It's a contingency plan the Panthers seek here.
With last year's fourth-rounder Ian Thomas developing nicely, the Panthers might have their No. 1 guy for 2019 and beyond.
But Thomas needs an understudy and someone to spell him at times.
Say 'hey' to Isaac Nauta.
Nauta burst onto the scene after a 2018 junior campaign for Georgia that saw him start in 12 of the team's games and go on to be the team's third-leading receiver with 29 catches for 427 yards and three touchdowns.
In three seasons as a Bulldog, Nauta has 67 catches for 902 yards and eight touchdowns.
Nauta possesses standard tight end size at 6-4, 240 and hails from the prestigious Florida IMG Academy where he went on scholarship to spend time playing ball with a host of other young gridiron stars.
Nauta also grew up in a family that went "riches to rags" when he was 8 years old, presenting the ever-popular "character" storyline that draft analysts will eat up when someone selects him and for weeks after.
The Panthers got a similar storyline in Thomas last year and could be the latest edition of popular good guys in grabbing Nauta.
ROUND 6:
This is it for the Panthers and they close the draft with a hefty dice roll.
Byron Cowart was once one of the nation's top high school recruits.
Cowart was the top prospect in the 2015 class and committed to Auburn out of high school.
Cowart struggled as a freshman and watched as his defensive coordinator Will Muschamp bolted for South Carolina. Shortly after, Cowart had emergency appendectomy surgery which shortened his sophomore campaign.
Cowart transferred to a junior college near his hometown in Florida before moving on to Maryland.
Cowart has three sacks, an interception and a forced fumble for the Terps this season.
But Cowart has the size (6-4, 293) and as a former top prospect, he clearly has the ability.
It just might take the right scenario, coaches and teammates to bring it out.
Late round picks can usually be hit or miss. But taking a chance on a former top prospect who just can't seem to get the timing right, in a position of great need, could be a fine punctuation mark to the 2019 draft.
It's still a bit early to start thinking about draft order, but the closer we get to the end of the regular season, the more it looks as if the Panthers will be picking in the top-10 in April's draft.
It's quite a change from the thinking a month ago. Once upon a time, Carolina was 6-2 and had serious playoff aspirations.
A five-game losing streak has all but derailed the Panthers playoff hopes, who cling to postseason life solely by virtue of a crowd of NFC Wild Card contenders who can't seem to quit stepping on their own feet on the dance floor.
Even still, Carolina's final trio of games is a brutal gauntlet.
The now 6-7 Panthers host New Orleans in a primetime game in Week 15. With the Saints eager to hold off Los Angeles for the NFC's top seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, they'll have plenty to play for against their rivals.
Carolina stays home and welcomes Matt Ryan and the Falcons to Charlotte two days before Christmas. A frustrated Falcons team may be the perfect candidate to put coal in the Panthers stocking.
Those two matchups lead to a regular season finale at New Orleans-- which has historically been a house of horrors for the Panthers. Including the playoffs, the Panthers have dropped three straight games in New Orleans and haven't won there since a 41-38 victory in 2015.
If there is a win in there for Carolina, it could come against Atlanta, who the Panthers tend to keep close, especially at home. The Falcons have struggled, but in division games, the records can typically be thrown out of the window.
Another possibility could be if New Orleans enters Week 17 with their fate completely clear. A pair of wins before that game and some Los Angeles struggles could mean the Saints have locked up the No. 1 seed before they even play the Panthers in the finale.
In such a scenario, Sean Payton could opt to limit his starters, including his aging quarterback Drew Brees, or hold them out completely. Even then, I'm not certain Carolina would win.
The Saints have Teddy Bridgewater as a backup and it wouldn't shock me if even he could find success against Carolina's inept pass rush and clueless secondary on the fast turf in New Orleans.
If the draft were today, the Panthers would pick 15th in the first round, beating out 6-7 Philadelphia and Denver by virtue of strength of schedule.
That's obviously subject to change. The Panthers sit just a game back of a slew of 5-8 teams and two games behind a few 4-9's. Should a couple of those teams get slightly hot and the Panthers continue to nosedive, a top-10 selection is far from out of the question.
For reference, the Panthers finished 6-10 in 2016 and that record was good enough for the 8th overall selection, which turned into Stanford's Christan McCaffrey.
Now, with all that hard stuff out of the way, here's the situation.
I ran a mock draft using a site called "Fanspeak". It's a lot of fun for football geeks like you and me.
Basically, it loads up the current draft order and allows you to input various big boards from "experts" all across the Internet to fill the prospect pool. Based on your selected big board and a pre-programmed list of individual team needs, an AI makes the picks for the other 31 teams and you play GM and pick your guys for each round based on who is on the board.
It's a blast. I do it dozens of times before the draft.
It's been a while since I did it this early, but it's the most fun a fan can have given Carolina's... eh.. circumstances.
So, I'll play GM and show you who I was able to get in this fantasy mock draft and explain the thought behind the pick and where they'd fit in. Please also note that this particular draft order isn't 100 percent up to date, so it has the Panthers selecting 16th overall. Just a heads up.
Also, ignore the Riley Ridley pick. That would be awesome, but I'm not sure how that second third round selection came into play. I can't find anywhere that shows the Panthers added any picks. Perhaps a glitch in the site's programming or something.
The Panthers did subtract their 7th rounder by shipping it to Buffalo in the Kevon Seymour/Kaelin Clay trade.
So just ignore that Ridley selection.
Now, let's go.
ROUND 1:
I haven't seen many mocks where Greedy Williams makes it this far in the first round, but in this particular fantasy, the Panthers are happy to grab him at 16 and don't waste much of their on-clock time to do it.
In this mock, two quarterbacks went in the top 10 (Justin Herbert to the Giants and Dwayne Haskins to Jacksonville) and a run on defensive linemen helped make Williams wait longer to hear his name called than many expected.
Nine defensive linemen went in front of Williams in this scenario and DeAndre Baker of Georgia actually was the first corner off the board, going fourth to the Cardinals.
Williams would immediately bolster Carolina's corner depth and improve a group that has struggled to stop chunk plays.
Williams is long with 6'3 size and has the ball skills and instincts that can't be taught.
Williams led the SEC in interceptions in 2017 with six, becoming the first LSU Tiger to accomplish the feat since Craig Steltz in 2007.
Williams has just two interceptions this season, but a lot of that might have to do with the fact that quarterbacks simply won't throw his direction.
Williams would challenge James Bradberry for a starting spot in camp and would join fellow LSU alum Donte Jackson in the defensive backs room.
A little camaraderie never hurt anyone, right?
ROUND 2:
Julius Peppers can't play forever and Mario Addison's sacks seem to only come in bunches.
Efe Obada is a nice story, having made the team as an international player once left orphaned in London and Wes Horton has had solid moments in Carolina.
But it's painfully clear that Carolina's pass rush needs a shot in the arm.
Montez Sweat is a mountain of a man at 6-6, 250, and has the pass-rushing skills to match the look.
Sweat tied for the SEC lead in sacks (10.5) and tackles for a loss (15.5) as a sophomore and followed it with a junior campaign that saw him rack up 11.5 sacks and 14 tackles for a loss.
Once again, the Panthers are surprised to find this kind of value in the second round. Most mocks I've seen project Sweat as a mid to late first rounder, but four teams addressed the offensive line from 21-32 and two (Washington and New England) thought about their futures at quarterback by drafting Will Grier and Drew Lock.
Frighteningly, Sweat could still refine his game even more for the NFL level, and Carolina would be a fine place to do it, beside veteran Mario Addison.
I can't imagine Peppers will play another year, especially as it's more evident now than ever that he's lost a step or two so Sweat would have real potential to be an opening day starter, barring any major free agent moves at the position.
ROUND 3:
Carolina needs help up front on the offensive side, too.
The Panthers offensive line depth was tested early in 2018 when salary cap black hole Matt Kalil was sidelined indefinitely with a knee concern and tackle Daryl Williams and guard Amini Silatolu dealt with lower body injuries of their own.
It forced the Panthers to rifle through the NFL garbage heap to find help. They did so in the form of former Texan Chris Clark. He's not the answer long-term.
Greg Van Roten, a 28-year-old Penn State product, was also thrust into a key role on the line. Haven't heard of him? Join the club.
Connor McGovern is a three-year starter on the offensive line for Penn State and is one of Mel Kiper Jr.'s top guards available.
McGovern made nine starts at right guard in 2018 but started 13 games at center as a sophomore in 2017. That versatility could loom large for the Panthers, who will lose longtime starting center Ryan Kalil to retirement after the season.
If McGovern proved he could play center again and do it competently, he could win the starting center role over... likely offensive line swiss army knife Tyler Larsen who could always shift to guard if needed.
ROUND 4:
If this is truly the end for Thomas Davis, it's been a great run.
The longtime linebacker and "Keep Pounding" slogan personified missed the first four games of the season after testing positive for an estrogen blocker, but still may opt to call it quits after a disappointing 2018.
If that's the case, the Panthers could use more linebacker talent to complement Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson.
Enter Shaquille Quarterman. The 2018 All-ACC first team selection has been a stalwart for Miami's defense.
Scouts like the 6-1, 240-pound Quarterman's pass rush ability and speed. He has 11 career sacks to go along with 243 total tackles in three seasons as a Hurricane.
Quarterman has also flashed at times as a pass defender. He intercepted a pass earlier this season and recorded a career-high five passes defended as a sophomore.
If Davis retires and the Panthers lose special teams ace and backup extraordinaire David Mayo to unrestricted free agency as they did with former standout AJ Klein, linebacker could be an interesting group to watch in April and during the summer.
Quarterman could compete for a starting role, depending on how last year's linebacker draft prospects Andre Smith and Jermaine Carter end up panning out.
ROUND 5:
It's not out of the realm of possibility that we've seen Greg Olsen play for the final time.
He's signed through the next two seasons, but with another major foot injury ending his season and NFL broadcasting experience already under his belt, one has to wonder how long Olsen will "play through pain".
If Olsen's surgery goes well and he still has some zip, sure, he could continue to give it a go. But he's about to turn 34, and lower body injuries don't heal the same way they do when you're 24.
It's a contingency plan the Panthers seek here.
With last year's fourth-rounder Ian Thomas developing nicely, the Panthers might have their No. 1 guy for 2019 and beyond.
But Thomas needs an understudy and someone to spell him at times.
Say 'hey' to Isaac Nauta.
Nauta burst onto the scene after a 2018 junior campaign for Georgia that saw him start in 12 of the team's games and go on to be the team's third-leading receiver with 29 catches for 427 yards and three touchdowns.
In three seasons as a Bulldog, Nauta has 67 catches for 902 yards and eight touchdowns.
Nauta possesses standard tight end size at 6-4, 240 and hails from the prestigious Florida IMG Academy where he went on scholarship to spend time playing ball with a host of other young gridiron stars.
Nauta also grew up in a family that went "riches to rags" when he was 8 years old, presenting the ever-popular "character" storyline that draft analysts will eat up when someone selects him and for weeks after.
The Panthers got a similar storyline in Thomas last year and could be the latest edition of popular good guys in grabbing Nauta.
ROUND 6:
This is it for the Panthers and they close the draft with a hefty dice roll.
Byron Cowart was once one of the nation's top high school recruits.
Cowart was the top prospect in the 2015 class and committed to Auburn out of high school.
Cowart struggled as a freshman and watched as his defensive coordinator Will Muschamp bolted for South Carolina. Shortly after, Cowart had emergency appendectomy surgery which shortened his sophomore campaign.
Cowart transferred to a junior college near his hometown in Florida before moving on to Maryland.
Cowart has three sacks, an interception and a forced fumble for the Terps this season.
But Cowart has the size (6-4, 293) and as a former top prospect, he clearly has the ability.
It just might take the right scenario, coaches and teammates to bring it out.
Late round picks can usually be hit or miss. But taking a chance on a former top prospect who just can't seem to get the timing right, in a position of great need, could be a fine punctuation mark to the 2019 draft.
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