By CORY SPIERS
coryspiers@gmail.com
It's almost here.
The NFL roster cut down is imminent. As teams wrap up their preseason schedules later this week, they'll also be thinking about which of their players they'll make part of their final roster of 53, which ones they will add to their 10-man practice squads and which ones they'll give walking papers to.
For the Panthers, the focus remains on getting through Thursday's preseason finale against Pittsburgh without major injuries. That game also presents one last opportunity for roster hopefuls to prove themselves under the lights in Charlotte.
A lot could change after Thursday's game. Or it might not. Either way, I'm going to take a stab at predicting the final 53 that the Panthers will carry after Saturday's final roster cut.
Below are the players I think will take the trip to Santa Clara when Carolina opens the season at the 49ers Sept. 10. I'll also provide some reasoning for why I think so.
Disclaimer: these are strictly my opinion and are based off of preseason statistics, practice reports and what I know about the organization's philosophy and priorities. Take them for a grain of salt-- this is meant to be fun. I'm also not a GM, so my roster construction is based off of little other than some pretty well educated guesses.
I'll make another post later this week updating any position battles that change after Thursday's game.
** denotes starters
QB: Cam Newton **, Derek Anderson , Joe Webb
Provided he is indeed 100-percent recovered, Newton is obviously the Week 1 starter. I don't think he plays Thursday against the Steelers and I certainly hope I'm right. The 2015 league MVP has nothing left to prove until the regular season.
As bad as Anderson has been this preseason (and in limited appearances last season) I have a gut-feeling he still gets the nod as the No. 2 guy one last time in Carolina.
Anderson has been rather woeful in his three preseason appearances, as is evident by his team-low 63.4 QB rating, but given that he's a veteran, and one that is very familiar with Carolina's offense and playbook none the less, I can't see the Panthers flat-out cutting ties with the 34-year-old.
Would Anderson be an ideal choice to come in cold should Newton go down this season? No. But it remains a safer choice than bringing in a free agent, a castoff from another squad or turning the keys of the backup role over to Garrett Gilbert in his first year with the team.
I think Anderson sticks around for one last season here. Behind him, Webb will stay. Webb has had a good preseason (111.5 QB rating) and plays special teams (surprisingly pretty well) and is an emergency wide receiver.
RB: Jonathon Stewart **, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker, Cameron Artis-Payne
The Panthers have a quandary in their running back stable, but it's a good one to have. They are carrying five capable backs at the moment and obviously won't keep all of them.
I do think they'll keep four. Stewart is the work-horse power back. However, he has trouble staying healthy for an entire season. Thus, depth at the position is quite key.
The 10th-year pro from Oregon has played in all 16 regular season games just three times in his career and hasn't done so since 2011.
McCaffrey, the prized rookie scat back from Stanford who the Panthers poached with the eighth overall pick, will serve as Stewart's backup. Given Stewart's high-mileage and injury worries, I expect him to be a frequently used backup.
Also, consider McCaffrey has lined up at wide receiver a few times this preseason. He'll see the field more than most backup running backs.
Fozzy Whittaker is well-liked and is coming off his best season as a Panther that saw him post career-highs in yards (265) and yards per carry (4.6). He also holds a trump card with the fact that he is often the team's primary kickoff returner.
Whittaker has carried seven times this preseason but has racked up 46 yards-- good for 7.7 yards-per-carry. I don't see any scenario where, given all of this, Whittaker doesn't make the team.
Cameron Artis-Payne is an enigma. The third-year pro from Auburn has had flashes of offensive talent but can't seem to find a helmet. He played in just three games last season after appearing in seven as a rookie.
At the beginning of camp, I thought Artis-Payne was a definite cut in the crowded running back group. I no longer feel that way and it's all because of what he has done this preseason.
Artis-Payne has set himself up to be hard to get rid of. He leads the team in carries (20), yards (129), yards-per-carry (6.5) and rushing touchdowns (3).
Artis-Payne has looked determined and physical in the exhibitions so far. I don't see how the team could afford to not have him in their final 53, especially given the unpredictability of Stewart's health.
Jalen Simmons is the fifth back Carolina is carrying. The South Carolina State grad has had an OK preseason (14 carries for 50 yards, no touchdowns) and he has flashed at times but that's not enough this year with the names ahead of him.
FB: Alex Armah **
This is one position people seem unanimously unsure of how to predict. Carolina has always carried a fullback under Ron Rivera and while I don't expect that to change this season following the departure of Mike Tolbert, I do wonder if it will be rookie Alex Armah or veteran Darrel Young that suits up on opening day.
Young is a safe fullback. A seventh-year pro out of Villanova, he missed just six regular season games during his six seasons with the Redskins.
What I think sets Armah apart, however, is his potential. He flashed his field vision on a 20-yard touchdown catch and run down the sideline against Tennessee in the second preseason game and ignited his teammates with a big special teams block in the joint practices with the Titans.
The 23-year-old from West Georgia was a sixth-round pick by the Panthers.
Armah might get a shot or two to make some last-minute noise Thursday night but either way, this is a tough, tough one to call.
If it were me, I'd give the nod to Armah simply because he's younger, has demonstrated an ability to play very physically (which Rivera loves) and is considered a project that could yield big rewards.
Provided the Panthers feel like I do, Armah will beat out the veteran.
TE: Greg Olsen **, Ed Dickson
The consummate pro Greg Olsen is the opening day starter and Ed Dickson should be behind him, just as he was last year.
Dickson has been a reliable and effective backup to Olsen. He has never missed a regular season game in his three seasons with the Panthers and has four receiving touchdowns.
Both Olsen and Dickson have been quiet this preseason (46 and 18 receiving yards, respectively) but that shouldn't be concerning.
The Panthers kept Scott Simonson on the roster last season but he saw action in just five games.
I'd imagine given Carolina's thin spots on defense (especially the secondary), they'd want that extra slot somewhere else this season, especially considering both Olsen and Dickon's durability. Olsen has also never missed a regular season game in six seasons with the team.
Scott Simonson and Chris Manhertz have each had solid camps, but Simonson has been slowed by a hamstring injury and Manhertz hasn't shined too brightly. I don't think either of them have done enough to use a valuable slot on the final roster.
WR: Kelvin Benjamin **, Devin Funchess **, Curtis Samuel, Russell Shepard, Damiere Byrd
Kelvin Benjamin appears to be primed to take the No. 1 receiver role and run with it again this season. The 6-5 wide out has had a great preseason, racking up 107 receiving yards with two touchdowns.
Benjamin has caught all eight passes thrown his way.
Funchess has been OK this preseason. He has four catches for 33 yards and a big, sloppy fumble early in the second preseason game against the Titans.
I still don't fully know what the ceiling is for Funchess. I don't think we've seen him grow into the player everyone seems to want him to be. The question is, will he ever?
Funchess was actually quieter in his second year than he was as a rookie, both in yards and touchdowns. He did, however, play one less game in 2016.
Still, Funchess will hold onto the second slot, at least for another season.
Rookie slot receiver Curtis Samuel should fit in at three, provided his hamstring injury doesn't flare up on him again.
Russell Shepard, brought in as a free agent this past offseason to add special teams and receiver depth, is an oft-forgotten piece of the puzzle here. He has only one catch for five yards this preseason.
Still, pencil in the 26-year-old for a spot here.
Behind Shepard, I'd give the fifth and final slot to Damiere Byrd.
Byrd has worked hard to get to this point. After being a practice squad designation and being called up for a game this past season, Byrd is now in a position to crack the final 53.
Byrd made a lot of noise in the preseason opener against the Texans. Though he's been rather quiet since hauling in two touchdown passes in that game, his preseason numbers are still good-- four catches for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Byrd is also speedy and can return punts and kickoffs, adding further to his value.
Brenton Bersin is always a contender to make the team but he's been slowed by injuries this preseason and I just don't know that he's made a loud enough case to makes the roster again.
We haven't seen much from Fred Ross, Keyarris Garrett and Trevor Graham. Mose Frazier and Kaelin Clay have had moments this preseason but not enough to make a roster case.
Rookie UNCC product Austin Duke has shown flashes. He has five catches for 75 yards this preseason. I still don't think he brings as much to the table as Byrd, however. I think he's just far too raw by comparison.
C: Ryan Kalil **, Tyler Larsen
Ryan Kalil appears ready to put his injury-ravaged 2016 season behind him. That's good news for Carolina.
Behind Kalil, I like Larsen, though Gino Gradkowski makes sense, too. Gradkowski saw the field a lot after Kalil had season-ending surgery last season.
We got some good looks at Larsen then too, though, and I thought he really stood out and made the most of his chances.
The battles on the line are much harder to call. The team's position coaches obviously have a lot more material to digest when deciding. Just based on the fact that he's younger and showed flashes of great ability last season, I'm penciling in Larsen for Kalil's backup spot, since I have to make a call. That's how most of these offensive line spots will go.
G: Andrew Norwell **, Trai Turner **, Amini Silatolu, Chris Scott
In Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, the Panthers are blessed with two of the game's best emerging guards.
Depth behind them in the inevitable case of nicks and bruises throughout the year remains important, though. I think Amini Silatolu and Chris Scott are the best options.
I've seen Silatolu listed as both a guard and a tackle. I know he can play both but guard might be more natural.
I like Silatolu's game a lot. The 305-pounder has been with the Panthers since 2011 but has struggled to stay healthy. He was out of football last season.
Now, Silatolu seems to be more comfortable, had a good camp and more importantly, is in shape and looks poised to stay healthy. I think he'll make a fine backup to Norwell/Turner.
Scott is a veritable Swiss army knife for Carolina on the line. I've seen Scott line up at center, guard and tackle before. I love that versatility and I think the team does, too.
It helps that Scott is no slouch when he is forced into duty, wherever he ends up being plugged in. I think he's a lock with his combination of versatility and skill.
T: Matt Kalil **, Daryl Williams **, Taylor Moton
Only time will tell if Carolina was wise to toss so much money to the younger brother of center Ryan Kalil this past offseason.
Matt has had a quiet preseason (good for a tackle) and is saying all the right things about playing with his brother and fitting in to the offense.
Carolina's tackle depth was tested early last year when Michael Oher's season ended after a concussion. Oher is now gone and I think that means Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams will start.
I think the battle between Williams and rookie Taylor Moton is very, very close. Moton and Williams have platooned a lot this preseason and coaches seem to really like what they are seeing from the rookie.
For now, I suppose Williams carries an edge into Week 1 just because he's the more experienced of the two. Scott and Silatolu's ability to also play tackle makes it safe to carry just three "true" tackles, I would think.
_________________________________________________________________________________
The above projection would leave the Panthers with 24 on the offensive side. In a second post, I'll predict the defensive side and in a third and final post, quickly hit the special teams and practice squads (which will be especially difficult).
coryspiers@gmail.com
It's almost here.
The NFL roster cut down is imminent. As teams wrap up their preseason schedules later this week, they'll also be thinking about which of their players they'll make part of their final roster of 53, which ones they will add to their 10-man practice squads and which ones they'll give walking papers to.
For the Panthers, the focus remains on getting through Thursday's preseason finale against Pittsburgh without major injuries. That game also presents one last opportunity for roster hopefuls to prove themselves under the lights in Charlotte.
A lot could change after Thursday's game. Or it might not. Either way, I'm going to take a stab at predicting the final 53 that the Panthers will carry after Saturday's final roster cut.
Below are the players I think will take the trip to Santa Clara when Carolina opens the season at the 49ers Sept. 10. I'll also provide some reasoning for why I think so.
Disclaimer: these are strictly my opinion and are based off of preseason statistics, practice reports and what I know about the organization's philosophy and priorities. Take them for a grain of salt-- this is meant to be fun. I'm also not a GM, so my roster construction is based off of little other than some pretty well educated guesses.
I'll make another post later this week updating any position battles that change after Thursday's game.
** denotes starters
QB: Cam Newton **, Derek Anderson , Joe Webb
Provided he is indeed 100-percent recovered, Newton is obviously the Week 1 starter. I don't think he plays Thursday against the Steelers and I certainly hope I'm right. The 2015 league MVP has nothing left to prove until the regular season.
As bad as Anderson has been this preseason (and in limited appearances last season) I have a gut-feeling he still gets the nod as the No. 2 guy one last time in Carolina.
Anderson has been rather woeful in his three preseason appearances, as is evident by his team-low 63.4 QB rating, but given that he's a veteran, and one that is very familiar with Carolina's offense and playbook none the less, I can't see the Panthers flat-out cutting ties with the 34-year-old.
Would Anderson be an ideal choice to come in cold should Newton go down this season? No. But it remains a safer choice than bringing in a free agent, a castoff from another squad or turning the keys of the backup role over to Garrett Gilbert in his first year with the team.
I think Anderson sticks around for one last season here. Behind him, Webb will stay. Webb has had a good preseason (111.5 QB rating) and plays special teams (surprisingly pretty well) and is an emergency wide receiver.
RB: Jonathon Stewart **, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker, Cameron Artis-Payne
The Panthers have a quandary in their running back stable, but it's a good one to have. They are carrying five capable backs at the moment and obviously won't keep all of them.
I do think they'll keep four. Stewart is the work-horse power back. However, he has trouble staying healthy for an entire season. Thus, depth at the position is quite key.
The 10th-year pro from Oregon has played in all 16 regular season games just three times in his career and hasn't done so since 2011.
McCaffrey, the prized rookie scat back from Stanford who the Panthers poached with the eighth overall pick, will serve as Stewart's backup. Given Stewart's high-mileage and injury worries, I expect him to be a frequently used backup.
Also, consider McCaffrey has lined up at wide receiver a few times this preseason. He'll see the field more than most backup running backs.
Fozzy Whittaker is well-liked and is coming off his best season as a Panther that saw him post career-highs in yards (265) and yards per carry (4.6). He also holds a trump card with the fact that he is often the team's primary kickoff returner.
Whittaker has carried seven times this preseason but has racked up 46 yards-- good for 7.7 yards-per-carry. I don't see any scenario where, given all of this, Whittaker doesn't make the team.
Cameron Artis-Payne is an enigma. The third-year pro from Auburn has had flashes of offensive talent but can't seem to find a helmet. He played in just three games last season after appearing in seven as a rookie.
At the beginning of camp, I thought Artis-Payne was a definite cut in the crowded running back group. I no longer feel that way and it's all because of what he has done this preseason.
Artis-Payne has set himself up to be hard to get rid of. He leads the team in carries (20), yards (129), yards-per-carry (6.5) and rushing touchdowns (3).
Artis-Payne has looked determined and physical in the exhibitions so far. I don't see how the team could afford to not have him in their final 53, especially given the unpredictability of Stewart's health.
Jalen Simmons is the fifth back Carolina is carrying. The South Carolina State grad has had an OK preseason (14 carries for 50 yards, no touchdowns) and he has flashed at times but that's not enough this year with the names ahead of him.
FB: Alex Armah **
This is one position people seem unanimously unsure of how to predict. Carolina has always carried a fullback under Ron Rivera and while I don't expect that to change this season following the departure of Mike Tolbert, I do wonder if it will be rookie Alex Armah or veteran Darrel Young that suits up on opening day.
Young is a safe fullback. A seventh-year pro out of Villanova, he missed just six regular season games during his six seasons with the Redskins.
What I think sets Armah apart, however, is his potential. He flashed his field vision on a 20-yard touchdown catch and run down the sideline against Tennessee in the second preseason game and ignited his teammates with a big special teams block in the joint practices with the Titans.
The 23-year-old from West Georgia was a sixth-round pick by the Panthers.
Armah might get a shot or two to make some last-minute noise Thursday night but either way, this is a tough, tough one to call.
If it were me, I'd give the nod to Armah simply because he's younger, has demonstrated an ability to play very physically (which Rivera loves) and is considered a project that could yield big rewards.
Provided the Panthers feel like I do, Armah will beat out the veteran.
TE: Greg Olsen **, Ed Dickson
The consummate pro Greg Olsen is the opening day starter and Ed Dickson should be behind him, just as he was last year.
Dickson has been a reliable and effective backup to Olsen. He has never missed a regular season game in his three seasons with the Panthers and has four receiving touchdowns.
Both Olsen and Dickson have been quiet this preseason (46 and 18 receiving yards, respectively) but that shouldn't be concerning.
The Panthers kept Scott Simonson on the roster last season but he saw action in just five games.
I'd imagine given Carolina's thin spots on defense (especially the secondary), they'd want that extra slot somewhere else this season, especially considering both Olsen and Dickon's durability. Olsen has also never missed a regular season game in six seasons with the team.
Scott Simonson and Chris Manhertz have each had solid camps, but Simonson has been slowed by a hamstring injury and Manhertz hasn't shined too brightly. I don't think either of them have done enough to use a valuable slot on the final roster.
WR: Kelvin Benjamin **, Devin Funchess **, Curtis Samuel, Russell Shepard, Damiere Byrd
Kelvin Benjamin appears to be primed to take the No. 1 receiver role and run with it again this season. The 6-5 wide out has had a great preseason, racking up 107 receiving yards with two touchdowns.
Benjamin has caught all eight passes thrown his way.
Funchess has been OK this preseason. He has four catches for 33 yards and a big, sloppy fumble early in the second preseason game against the Titans.
I still don't fully know what the ceiling is for Funchess. I don't think we've seen him grow into the player everyone seems to want him to be. The question is, will he ever?
Funchess was actually quieter in his second year than he was as a rookie, both in yards and touchdowns. He did, however, play one less game in 2016.
Still, Funchess will hold onto the second slot, at least for another season.
Rookie slot receiver Curtis Samuel should fit in at three, provided his hamstring injury doesn't flare up on him again.
Russell Shepard, brought in as a free agent this past offseason to add special teams and receiver depth, is an oft-forgotten piece of the puzzle here. He has only one catch for five yards this preseason.
Still, pencil in the 26-year-old for a spot here.
Behind Shepard, I'd give the fifth and final slot to Damiere Byrd.
Byrd has worked hard to get to this point. After being a practice squad designation and being called up for a game this past season, Byrd is now in a position to crack the final 53.
Byrd made a lot of noise in the preseason opener against the Texans. Though he's been rather quiet since hauling in two touchdown passes in that game, his preseason numbers are still good-- four catches for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Byrd is also speedy and can return punts and kickoffs, adding further to his value.
Brenton Bersin is always a contender to make the team but he's been slowed by injuries this preseason and I just don't know that he's made a loud enough case to makes the roster again.
We haven't seen much from Fred Ross, Keyarris Garrett and Trevor Graham. Mose Frazier and Kaelin Clay have had moments this preseason but not enough to make a roster case.
Rookie UNCC product Austin Duke has shown flashes. He has five catches for 75 yards this preseason. I still don't think he brings as much to the table as Byrd, however. I think he's just far too raw by comparison.
C: Ryan Kalil **, Tyler Larsen
Ryan Kalil appears ready to put his injury-ravaged 2016 season behind him. That's good news for Carolina.
Behind Kalil, I like Larsen, though Gino Gradkowski makes sense, too. Gradkowski saw the field a lot after Kalil had season-ending surgery last season.
We got some good looks at Larsen then too, though, and I thought he really stood out and made the most of his chances.
The battles on the line are much harder to call. The team's position coaches obviously have a lot more material to digest when deciding. Just based on the fact that he's younger and showed flashes of great ability last season, I'm penciling in Larsen for Kalil's backup spot, since I have to make a call. That's how most of these offensive line spots will go.
G: Andrew Norwell **, Trai Turner **, Amini Silatolu, Chris Scott
In Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, the Panthers are blessed with two of the game's best emerging guards.
Depth behind them in the inevitable case of nicks and bruises throughout the year remains important, though. I think Amini Silatolu and Chris Scott are the best options.
I've seen Silatolu listed as both a guard and a tackle. I know he can play both but guard might be more natural.
I like Silatolu's game a lot. The 305-pounder has been with the Panthers since 2011 but has struggled to stay healthy. He was out of football last season.
Now, Silatolu seems to be more comfortable, had a good camp and more importantly, is in shape and looks poised to stay healthy. I think he'll make a fine backup to Norwell/Turner.
Scott is a veritable Swiss army knife for Carolina on the line. I've seen Scott line up at center, guard and tackle before. I love that versatility and I think the team does, too.
It helps that Scott is no slouch when he is forced into duty, wherever he ends up being plugged in. I think he's a lock with his combination of versatility and skill.
T: Matt Kalil **, Daryl Williams **, Taylor Moton
Only time will tell if Carolina was wise to toss so much money to the younger brother of center Ryan Kalil this past offseason.
Matt has had a quiet preseason (good for a tackle) and is saying all the right things about playing with his brother and fitting in to the offense.
Carolina's tackle depth was tested early last year when Michael Oher's season ended after a concussion. Oher is now gone and I think that means Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams will start.
I think the battle between Williams and rookie Taylor Moton is very, very close. Moton and Williams have platooned a lot this preseason and coaches seem to really like what they are seeing from the rookie.
For now, I suppose Williams carries an edge into Week 1 just because he's the more experienced of the two. Scott and Silatolu's ability to also play tackle makes it safe to carry just three "true" tackles, I would think.
_________________________________________________________________________________
The above projection would leave the Panthers with 24 on the offensive side. In a second post, I'll predict the defensive side and in a third and final post, quickly hit the special teams and practice squads (which will be especially difficult).
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